#Gabon: Gabon: an estimated 7.1% for 2014 and 8.5% growth for 2015

 

Depending on how economic conditions and macroeconomic forecasts for the first half of 2014 CEMAC, global growth accelerated in the second half of 2013, reaching an average of 3.6%. However, global growth would slow slightly in the first half. It is expected to strengthen to 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015 The business was sustained in 2013 in most sectors except export and building materials products.

As for Gabon, on the basis of the observed cyclical the second half of 2013, the Gabonese economy would register a growth of 7.1% in 2014 driven mainly by the non-oil sector (8.5%) (BTP , mines, etc.). In 2015, the growth rate would be 8.5%. Aggregate demand should be supported in 2014 under the leadership of private investment (12.9%) who takes over on the public. Similarly, exports would increase by 3.7% and imports by 5.4%. 2015 should see the same trends with global demand growth and still supported by private investment (13.4%). Exports were up 5.7%, while imports would increase by 6.4%. Economic conditions for Gabon Activity was sustained in 2013 in most sectors except export and building materials products. Indeed, in the primary sector, domestic production of crude oil amounted to 11.014 million tons, down 5.3%, due to the technical difficulties encountered by the operators and the natural decline of mature fields. In contrast, mining activity was characterized by significant results due to the favorable economic climate and the rise of the deposit Ndjolé with a manganese production of 4 million tonnes (27.7%) . Regarding the secondary and tertiary sectors, activity is directed upward overall, thanks to sustained demand from the domestic market, with the exception of branches of tobacco manufacturing, lubricants and construction materials (cement and plate). Regarding consumer prices, inflation, as measured by the HICP, averaged 0.5% in December 2013 Year over year, prices rose 3.3%, due to increases in price of the items "Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels' (10.6%), transport (3.4%) and" clothing and footwear "(3.3%). In 2013, Gabon's foreign trade was characterized by a contraction in export values ​​(-4.6%) and an increase in imports (+3.4%). As a result, the trade balance, although qu'excédentaire 2 794 300 000 000 FCFA, fell 9.4%. Economic Outlook and Forecast Based on the observed cyclical the second half of 2013, the Gabonese economy would register a growth of 7.1% in 2014 driven mainly by the non-oil sector (8.5%) (BTP , mines, etc.). Indeed, the primary sector to grow by 3.9% with oil at 0.9%, while the secondary sector would show 9.0% growth and 8.8% tertiary. In 2015, the growth rate would be 8.5%, supported not only by the non-oil activities, but also by the oil would grow by 5.9%. Aggregate demand should be supported in 2014 under the leadership of private investment (12.9%) who takes over on the public. Similarly, exports would increase by 3.7% and imports by 5.4%, supported by imports of capital goods. 2015 should see the same trends with global demand growth and still supported by private investment (13.4%). Exports were up 5.7%, while imports grow by 6, 4%. The consumer prices are projected at 1.3% in 2014 contained by government measures for removing taxes on certain commodities. In 2015, prices would gain a point to stand at 2.3%. In terms of public finances, the primary balance would remain in surplus in 2014 is expected an increase in total revenue in 2015, thanks to measures related to the mastery of tax expenditures, improving capacity and recovery services modernization work tools of tax authorities. Credit to the economy would experience a significant increase (32.8%), reflecting the expected developments in the banking system and increase its support for the financing of the economy.

                                                                                                         19-09-2014, Ogooue infos